Every year when the Ballon d’Or shortlist drops, football fans and journalists around the world begin asking the same question: who deserves to be crowned the best player in the world? The award has long been a mix of skill, trophies, consistency, and narrative.
Who was the single most outstanding player in the season that just ended? The Ballon d’Or is the sport’s most talked about individual prize and, this year, the conversation has been louder than usual. A new generation of stars is knocking on the door while a handful of established names are still very much in the mix.
France Football and its network of journalists released the 30-player shortlist in early August. The list is long and varied. It contains established superstars, emerging teenagers, and a remarkable number of players from one club that dominated Europe this season. That dominance is the single biggest context for this year’s race.
Understanding the voting system makes the result less mysterious. One journalist from each of the top 100 FIFA-ranked countries chooses their top ten players from the shortlist. The points awarded are weighted so first place is worth 15 points, second place 12, third place 10, and then 8, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 down to tenth. When votes are tallied, the player with the highest total is the winner. Ties are broken by counting first place votes and so on. That structure rewards not only excellence but also broad recognition across different countries and football cultures.
There is always room for a surprise. A goalkeeper who was impossible to beat, a defensive midfielder who made everyone else look better, or a forward who improbably led his team to domestic and European trophies at a critical time can upset expectations. Betting markets sometimes miss those stories because they focus on predictable volume of goals or well-known brands. A sustained, game-changing impact in big finals can swing voters unexpectedly. That is how underdogs become winners.
If you strip the question down to mechanics and psychology, these three elements will decide the winner. First, trophies matter. The more major titles a player has helped win, the stronger their case. Second, decisive moments matter. Voters reward players who produced in finals and knockout games. Third, broad recognition matters. A player with deep support across different countries and continents will pick up consistent points from a wide jury.
Top Contenders:
Ousmane Dembele
Ousmane Dembele has experienced one of the most remarkable transformations in recent football history. For years, his career was overshadowed by injuries and inconsistency. But this past season with Paris Saint-Germain, he not only stayed healthy but delivered one of the finest campaigns of his life.
- Champions League glory: Dembele was named Champions League Player of the Season. He scored 8 goals and assisted 6 more during PSG’s run to the title. In the final against Inter, he delivered decisive assists, showing composure under pressure and reminding everyone why he was once considered one of the brightest talents in Europe.
- Domestic dominance: In Ligue 1, he scored 21 goals and provided 6 assists across 29 appearances. When combined with all competitions, he ended the season with more than 45 direct goal contributions.
- Narrative strength: The Ballon d’Or voters often love a story of redemption, and Dembele offers exactly that. Once seen as a fragile player who might never fulfill his promise, he is now at the very peak of world football.
Dembele’s combination of silverware, statistics, and narrative makes him one of the strongest candidates. He has the trophies, he has the numbers, and he has the defining moments. If there is a front runner among the three, it is him.
Raphinha
While Dembele was dazzling in France, Raphinha quietly put together a career-best season with Barcelona. The Brazilian winger has always been talented, but this was the year when he became the main man for the Catalan giants.
- La Liga Player of the Season: Raphinha was officially crowned the best player in Spain’s top division. He registered 18 goals and 9 assists in the league alone, but his influence went beyond raw numbers. His creativity, work rate, and ability to decide games made him indispensable for Barcelona.
- European exploits: In the Champions League, Raphinha finished among the top scorers with 11 goals. His performances in Europe proved he could deliver at the very highest level, not just in domestic competitions.
- Consistency across competitions: Over the course of the season, he reached around 50 goal contributions when club and international matches are combined. That kind of consistency is rare, and it makes his case even stronger.
What works against him slightly is that Barcelona did not win the Champions League, which usually carries heavy weight with voters. Still, being the best player in La Liga and putting up extraordinary numbers is no small achievement. Raphinha might not be the clear favorite, but he is a legitimate contender who could surprise many.
Lamine Yamal
The youngest of the three candidates, Lamine Yamal represents the future of football, but he is also already part of the present. He has been breaking records and redefining what is possible for a teenager at the highest level.
- La Liga’s best young player: Yamal won the Best U23 Player award in La Liga. He finished the season with 9 goals and 13 assists in the league, making him the top assist provider despite his age.
- Champions League highlights: In the semi-final against Inter, he scored what UEFA voted as Goal of the Season. That kind of spectacular, high-pressure moment leaves a mark in voters’ memories.
- Individual recognition: He already won the 2024 Golden Boy award, proving that his talent is recognized worldwide. Few players have ever had this much impact so early.
His age can work for or against him. On one hand, voters may hesitate to give the biggest award in world football to someone so young, thinking he has plenty of time ahead. On the other hand, they might want to reward the extraordinary once-in-a-lifetime breakthrough he has had. The Ballon d’Or has always loved stories, and Yamal’s story is almost too good to ignore.
When comparing Dembele, Raphinha, and Yamal, the decision comes down to what voters value most.
- If trophies matter most, Dembele has the edge. Champions League titles often decide these races, and his Champions League Player of the Season award only strengthens his case.
- If consistency matters most, Raphinha has the argument. Week after week, he delivered in Spain and in Europe, showing reliability and maturity that helped Barcelona stay competitive.
- If narrative and future impact matter most, Yamal is the most exciting choice. He is not just another candidate; he symbolizes the next era of football, a generational talent who is already among the best.
Ballon d’Or voting often reflects a mix of head and heart. The head says that the award should go to the player who combined team success with personal excellence, which points strongly to Dembele. The heart sometimes rewards players who capture imagination and global attention, which gives Yamal a shot at history. Raphinha sits somewhere in between, the consistent star who may not have the same headlines but deserves respect for carrying Barcelona through a demanding season.
Leave a Reply